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Today’s release of the $14.99 Twitter client, Tweetie for the Mac, accompanied by a chorus of kvetching by the Twitterati about the price, spotlights the 800-pound gorilla in the Mac shareware space. The threat independent developers don’t want to acknowledge? Mac shareware prices are heading south.

Two weeks ago MacHeist3 came to a close. It was an unqualified success (at least for its organizers). For the two or three of you who missed it, MH3 was a heavily promoted bundle of indie Mac software, priced irresistibly to drive volume sales.

I couldn’t–and didn’t–resist it. For my $39, I got some 14 apps nominally worth close to $1,000 in aggregate at individual item prices. And to make me feel even better, a quarter of my $39 when to charity. Even if I use only one or two of the apps, I feel like I’ve gotten my money’s worth. I suspect most buyers feel the same.

What about the participating independent developers? I can only guess. In every case the unit price received by a given dev was but a tiny fraction of the “suggested retail” price (a realization that evidently drove away some potential participants). However, MH3 ended up selling 88,000+ bundles. I doubt that every buyer has registered every app in the bundle, but it seems likely to me that many participating devs have never seen registration numbers like these. If you’re one of these devs you’ve now got a REALLY BIG bunch of new users introduced to your software. Users who will (you hope) be predisposed to buy upgrades. Users who will be a prime–and primed–market for new apps you develop. From the developer’s POV, this looks like A Good Deal to me.

So where’s the downside?

Recalibration

It’s in user expectations. MH3 was a recalibration event, a punctuation mark in the equilibrium that until now has characterized Mac shareware prices. $15–Tweetie/Mac’s price point–used to be thought of as a pretty good price for a competent piece of Mac shareware. I’ve rarely thought twice about ponying up $15 or $20. Tellingly, the equivalent number on the iPhone seems to be closer to a couple dollars, perhaps just $0.99. What’s going on here?

The crazy success of the iPhone app store has attracted hoards of developers and wannabes; at the same time it has inexorably driven prices down–a fact much lamented and written about in the dev community. iPhone users quaver at the thought of spending more than a dollar or two on an app, even a competent and beautiful one. In a sense, the iPhone app market is a victim of its own success.

Tragedy of the Commons?

In the Mac app market, MH3 is the big success story de jour. Success stories like MH3’s don’t stand alone for long. You can bet that imitators are in the wings. How could it be otherwise? Sign up a bunch of hungry devs, price and time your bundle like it’s a fire sale, and promote the hell out of it. Users flock to grab the deal, and everyone walks away happy. Repeat++.

User’s price expectations keep ratcheting downward. If I can get a whole passel of nice apps for $39, why should I be willing to pay that for any single app? Why should anyone?

Am I overlooking something? Is this the inevitable tragedy of the Mac s/w commons? Or am I just having a fevered nightmare?